The Pending Home Sales Index plunged in May 2010, just one month after the expiration of the federal home buyer tax credit program.

The Pending Home Sales Index is now at a record-low level.

A “pending home sale” is an existing home under contract to sell, but not yet closed. According to the National Association of Realtors®, 80 percent of homes under contract close within 60 days.

Because of this timeline, we can expect the summer’s Existing Home Sales to be weak, too. With fewer homes going under contract, fewer homes can close.

On the surface, May’s Pending Home Sales Index looks like terrible news for housing. And, if you’re a seller, it just might be. But, if you’re a buyer, the story reads differently.  Just consider the market conditions. 

A broad look at the housing market shows:

1. Home supplies are rising in most markets
2. Home sales are falling in most markets
3. Mortgage rates are at all-time lows

In other words, in most markets, more sellers are competing for fewer buyers, and the “winning” buyers are financing their homes at the lowest rates in history.

It’s an excellent time to be a home buyer in Chesterfield.

The Pending Home Sales Index shot higher in April as low mortgage rates and a soon-to-expire federal tax credit spurred home buying in Chester and across the county.

A “pending home sale” is a home that’s under contract to sell but not yet closed.

Region-by-region, April’s pending home sales varied versus March’s data:

• Northeast Region: +29.5%
• Midwest Region : +4.1%
• South Region : -0.6% (after a +15.9% posting in March)
• West Region : +7.5%

On an annual basis, the Pending Home Sales Index is higher by 22 percent.

April marks the third straight month that pending home sales are up and today’s buyers should take note. This is because, according to the National Association of Realtors®, 80% of homes under contract close within 60 days.

In other words, May and June’s existing home sales data should be similarly strong, causing the The Highlands real estate market to gently shift in favor of sellers.  In fact, already, we’re seeing home resales touch multi-year highs while new home supplies fall to multi-year lows.

All of it tends to push home prices higher while simultaneously reducing buyer negotiation leverage. That, coupled with the high probability of higher mortgage rates ahead, means that finding “deals” will get tougher for the average home buyer.

In looking at the housing market data, it appears that the best month in which to have bought a home this year was February.  The next best time may be right now. 

Talk to your real estate agent if you’re planning to buy a home this year.  It may be sensible to move up your time frame a few months.

The Pending Home Sales Index moved higher in March as home sales were spurred by low mortgage rates and an expiring tax credit.

A “pending home” is a property that is under contract to sell, but not yet closed.

March marks the second straight month in which the Pending Home Sales Index improved after a series of weak showings this past winter.

March showed a 5 percent increase over the month, but the Pending Home Sales Index is still off its October 2009’s peak.  October 2009 is a comparable period to March 2010 in that it marked the 1-month deadline before the home buyer tax credit’s initial expiration date. The credit was later extended to April 2010, of course.

That said, March’s surge in sales is being felt on the street.

Home buyers in Chester no doubt noticed the change in activity. Around the country, anecdotally, multiple offer situations were more common last month and “right-priced” homes tended to go under contract quickly.

The increase in March’s Pending Home Sales is diminishing the nation’s home supply which, in turn, should cause prices to rise in most markets — including Rivers Bend.

Today’s buyers should consider making an offer sooner rather than later.  Looking at the data, it appears the best time to have found a “deal” on a home may have been in February.

As expected, the Pending Home Sales shot higher in February, boosted by the federal home buyer tax credit’s April 30 deadline.

Versus the month prior, February’s index rose 8 percent but remains well off the highs set last October.

For today’s home buyers and seller, the Pending Home Sales Index is an important measurement. This is because a “pending home” is a property that is under contract to sell, but not yet closed.

According to the National Association of Realtors®, 80% of homes under contract close within 60 days, historically. Therefore, a higher Pending Sales figure in February projects that April’s Existing Home Sales will be higher, too.

If you’re a Chesterfield home buyer today, no doubt you’ve noticed the extra market activity.

On right-priced homes, multiple offer situations are more common; sales prices are settling closer to listing price; Days on market is falling. These are the signs of a buyer-heavy market.  It drives home supplies down and home prices up.

It’s a good time to be a seller, in other words.  Especially as buyer activity looks poised to peak.

When the home buyer credit faced its last expiration in November 2009, we saw a pattern of buyers rushing to beat the deadline.  There’s no reason to expect that won’t happen again. And as it does, Pending Home Sales should continue to climb. Average home sale prices should rise.

Home buyers may find it smart to go under contract sooner rather than later. Pending Home Sales is a warning shot.  Higher home sales figures are ahead.

Fewer homes went under contract in January as the housing market continues to limp through the winter months.

According to the National Association of Realtors®, the Pending Home Sales Index fell to its lowest level in 3 quarters this January. By contrast, in October 2009, the index had touched a 3-year high.

The Pending Home Sales Index measures the number of homes that have gone under contract to sell, but have yet to close nationwide. It’s compiled using data from more than 100 regional listing services and 60-plus brokerages  — the sample set encompasses 20 percent of all home resales in a given month.

Economists have come to rely on the Pending Home Sales Index because of its high correlation to actual home sales. 80% of all home marked “pending” close within 60 days. Many of the rest close within 120.

Therefore, when we see Pending Home Sales show weakness like it did in January, we can infer that home resales will remain weak through the spring.

But will they really?

1. Fewer sales should drag down home prices, bringing more buyers into the market
2. Mortgage rates are still very low, but are poised to rise in just a few weeks
3. The home buyer tax credit requires buyers to be in contract by April 30, 2010

In other words, there’s a confluence of factors that could lead to a rush of sales in Chester and around the country over the next two months, reversing the housing market’s recent momentum.