Home Values
Negative Equity by State
InfoGraphic
The above map shows the percentage of homes with a mortgage in each state that are in a ‘negative equity’ situation meaning that the value of the home is less than the mortgage amount. Approximately 30% of the homes in the country don’t have a mortgage on them.
Foreclosure backlogs could take decades to clear out
If you are a homeowner thinking about waiting until next year or spring to put your home on the market that might not be the best option. Don’t wait…price your home to sell and sell now if you want to maximize your profits AS TO today’s market value. Even though these types of properties are higher in other parts of the country they are still a concern locally in Richmond, Tri-Cities and Chesterfield County VA areas. Anytime a property closes as a short sale or foreclosure it is selling, on average, below the current market value rate.
From USA Today-Foreclosure sales are moving so slowly in half the states that at the current pace, it will take more than eight years on average to clear the 2.1 million homes in foreclosure or with seriously delinquent mortgages, new research shows.
That’s about twice as long as a year ago in the states where foreclosures go through courts — before the mortgage industry was upended by last fall’s disclosures that court papers in many foreclosure cases were improperly prepared. Since then, new checks have slowed the process. Read more…
Homeowners-I hate to sound like a broken record
I talk with 10-20 homeowners a day with regards to either their home expiring, being withdraw, or they have been released from the listing agreement with their previous agent. Ultimately, the number one reason these homes did not sell is the list price is not what the current market preceives as value, period. What happens with this group is the homeowner ends up becoming the highest bidder with their home. Something I don’t think any homeowner wants, was planning on or expecting.
Condition, location, exposure and price will determine when and if a home will sell. To be honest all 4 categories filter back to price. Meaning, if the condition is poor then the list price needs to reflect this. If a home needs deferred maintenance and the homeowner does not want to do this, not sure why in today’s market, then the price needs to reflect this. Each category reflects back to price. Maybe, exposure is not as price driven but again the longer it takes for a homeowner(s) to understand pricing the more money or equity they will lose. Without a doubt 85% of the homeowners marketing begins with price. It’s amazing to me how many homeowners have to go through the school of hard knocks to realize this. Hope over reality is what they have. I am not being disrespectful or mean. I work with more sellers than I do with buyers. In fact, 90% of my business is selling homes. I get it…values are down and the largest financial investment a homeowner has the equity is flying out the window like a bad draft.
If I had dollar for every time I have said what I am getting ready to share, I wouldn’t need to be in real estate. I say this over and over to the groups I network with and even to my clients, ” a homeowner who is going to put their hat in today’s real estate arena MUST price their home compellingly or DO NOT put the property on the market. Wait 4-6 years for the market to get better.” If the time frame is not realistic for the homeowner then NOW is the time to get the home on the market. Again, this is not me writing nonsense BLOG posts. I back what I am sharing with facts. Look at today’s headlines. Look at the BLOG post I posted several days ago…it’s happening and their is a reason why, click here.
New Home Sells Hits a 6 Month Low
(WASHINGTON) — Sales of new homes fell to a six-month low in August. The
fourth straight monthly decline during the peak buying season suggests the
housing market is years away from a recovery.
The Commerce Department said Monday that new-home sales fell 2.3 percent to a
seasonally adjusted annual rate of 295,000. That’s less than half the roughly
700,000 that economists say must be sold to sustain a healthy housing
market.
New-homes sales are on pace for the worst year since the government began
keeping records a half century ago.
Read more: http://www.time.com/time/business/article/0,8599,2094878,00.html#ixzz1Z538I0Bp
If you know of anyone who is thinking about putting their home on the market send them this post, they will not like it but in the end they will say thank you. Thank you for not giving me the smoke and mirrors but the facts.
Sellers-The Window Of Opportunity Is Closing
I have suggested that sellers who need to sell within the next 18 months had a ‘window of opportunity’ to sell at higher prices. They needed to put their houses up for sale immediately before a flood of distressed properties were introduced to the market. This window is beginning to close. The paperwork challenges faced by banks that caused a delay in the foreclosure process over the last ten months are starting to clear. It seems that these houses are now coming to the market.
RealtyTrac reported in their September Foreclosure Report:
“Default notices were filed for the first time on a total of 78,880 U.S. properties in August, a nine-month high and a 33 percent increase from July — the biggest month-over-month increase since August 2007.”
James Saccacio, chief executive officer of RealtyTrac explained:
“The big increase in new foreclosure actions may be a signal that lenders are starting to push through some of the foreclosures delayed by robo-signing and other documentation problems. It also foreshadows more bank repossessions in the coming months as these new foreclosures make their way through the process.”
Diana Olick, of CNBC’s Realty Check quoted a spokesperson for Bank of America:
“ Strong gains like that from July to August demonstrate our progress – primarily in judicial states — clearing more volume to advance to foreclosure once we pass the numerous quality controls we have in place and exhaust all options with homeowners.”
The impact will be felt from coast to coast. New Jersey Superior Court Judge Mary Jacobson recently cleared the way for the top banks to resume foreclosures in the state. The impact this will have on the number of distressed properties can be clearly seen in these statistics reported by Housing Wire:
“In October, New Jersey had the 24th highest foreclosure rate in the country, with servicers filing roughly 5,200 foreclosures that month, according to RealtyTrac. By July, the Garden State’s foreclosure rate dropped to 42nd with just 1,112 filings last month.”
ForeclosureRadar, which handles research in California, Oregon, Washington, Arizona and Nevada, last week reported:
“Foreclosure starts rose in every state.”
Bottom Line
If you currently are selling your home, price it to compel a buyer to purchase it now. Don’t be naive in thinking this does not pertain to Chesterfield, Colonial Heights, Petersburg, Richmond, Prince George, Mechanicsville, Powhatan or any of the surrounding areas BECAUSE it does have a HUGE impact on property values. Waiting will cause you to compete with an increased number of distressed properties which sell at dramatically discounted prices.
Housing Market-Feeling The Pressure? It’s About To Rise
A call to action for any homeowner who has their home on the market or is thinking about selling their home. Price your home to sell. Don’t go into a transaction with hope over reality because as you will see from the information below…it’s going to cost you money, headaches and more importantly…the property will not sell. Follow the advise of a professional REALTOR so they help you get what you want in the time you want.
Two separate housing reports came out in the last week which discussed different challenges facing the current real estate market. The first was CoreLogic’s Negative Equity Report and the second was JP Morgan Chase’s Home Price Monitor. Each report delivered some difficult news. However, if you piece both reports together, we can see future challenges are in store for home values.
Negative Equity-When a home’s current value is less than the existing mortgage on that home, the house is said to be in a ‘negative equity’ situation (other terms used to describe this situation are ‘underwater’ and ‘upside down’). The CoreLogic report stated:
“…that 10.9 million, or 22.5 percent, of all residential properties with a mortgage were in negative equity at the end of the second quarter of 2011… An additional 2.4 million borrowers had less than five percent equity, referred to as near-negative equity, in the second quarter. Together, negative equity and near-negative equity mortgages accounted for 27.5 percent of all residential properties with a mortgage nationwide.”
This is important because studies show that people in a negative equity situation are more likely to default on their mortgage payments than people who have equity in their homes.
Home Prices-Many experts believe that housing prices will soften through this winter. According to an article in HousingWire, analysts from JP Morgan Chase announced in their recent Home Price Monitor:
“Home prices could dip another 6% to 7%, before hitting rock bottom in early 2012.”
Let’s Combine the Information-The CoreLogic report said there are an additional 2.4 million households with less than 5% equity. The JP Morgan Chase report said that prices will drop another 6 to 7% in the next six months. That leaves an additional 2 million+ homes in the near future that will be faced with the decision to pay (or not pay) the mortgage payment on a house no longer worth the amount of that mortgage.
Bottom Line-History has shown that a percentage of those 2 million+ homes will enter the distressed property category as some families decide it no longer makes sense to pay their mortgage. Any increase in short sales or foreclosures will impact prices in an area.
4 Financial Reason To Buy Now
As Dean Hartman said last week, the purchase of a home is a personal decision. However, I want to give everyone four great financial reasons why you should not wait before taking the plunge into homeownership.
Interest Rates Are Increasing
Interest rates have increased almost 3/4 of a point in the last six months. Most experts expect rates to continue to increase through the year. Interest rates along with price determine the overall cost of a home. Even with prices softening, if interest rates rise, it may be less expensive to buy now rather than wait.
The 30-Year Mortgage May Disappear
There has been much debate regarding government’s role in providing support for homeownership. There are several experts who believe If Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac’s roles are eliminated, or even limited, it may be the end to the 30-year mortgage. This concern is addressed in MSN Real Estate’s Is it curtains for the 30-year mortgage?
QRM Requirements Could Be Much More Stringent
Here are proposed changes to the requirements for a ‘qualified residential mortgage’:
- Certain mortgage types would be eliminated
- You would need to put a minimum of 20% down
- You would need a minimum 690 FICO score
- The ratios of income to both the mortgage payment and overall debt would become much more conservative (28% and 36%)
There would be loans available to purchasers who don’t qualify under the new rules. However, they will probably be more expensive to the buyer (both in rate and costs).
Rents Are Expected to Increase
The supply of available rentals is decreasing and the demand is increasing. That will lead to an increase in rental costs throughout the year. The Wall Street Journal this week quoted a report by Reis, Inc:
“Expect vacancies to continue declining, and rents rising through the rest of 2011 at an even faster pace.”
Bottom Line
You may be waiting on the sidelines to see if prices will continue to depreciate before you purchase a home. The mortgage expense is a major piece in the overall financial picture of homeownership. Make sure you consider it when timing your decision.
As always, if you have questions please reach out to us, info@teamestes.com.
Home Affordability Peaked Last Quarter; Purchasing Power Sinks 10%
Home affordability reached an all-time high in 2010′s last quarter. Unfortunately for home buyers in Virginia , it’s been a different story since, however.
As mortgage rates cratered, and with home values soft, the Home Opportunity Index reached its highest level in 20 years. The index is published by the National Association of Home Builders.
Close to 74 percent of the new and existing homes sold between October-December 2010 were affordable to families earning the national median income of $64,400. It’s the 8th straight quarter in which the Home Affordability Index surpassed 70 percent.
Prior to 2009, the HOI rarely topped 65 percent.
That said, though, as with everything in real estate, home affordability is a local event. For example, take the Elkhart/Goshen area of northern Indiana. 97 percent of homes sold there last quarter were affordable to families making the area’s median income.
This level of affordability is likely related to state capital Indianapolis, a perennial top-scorer itself.
For the second straight quarter — and the 22nd time dating back to 2006 — Indianapolis led all major metropolitan areas with a 93.5 affordability rating.
Meanwhile, on the opposite end of the home affordability spectrum, the “Least Affordable Major City” title went to the New York-White Plains, NY-Wayne, NJ area for the 11th consecutive quarter. Just 25.5 percent of homes were affordable to households earning the area median income.
It’s a a 6-point improvement from Q2 2010, however.
The rankings for all 225 metro areas are viewable on the NAHB website but regardless of where you live, it’s important to remember that rising mortgage rates this year have made homes less affordable in all markets across the United States. We won’t see a repeat record in this quarter’s HOI once it’s calculated and published.
Home buyers in Chester have lost 10% of their purchasing power since November, and mortgage rates look poised to rise even more.
If your plans call for buying a home later this year, consider moving up your time frame. The long-term costs of homeownership are rising, and affordability, therefore, is falling.
Home Affordability Reaches Record-Levels… Last Quarter.
Last quarter, with home prices still relatively low and mortgage rates making new, all-time lows almost weekly, the cost of home ownership was extraordinarily low in Virginia and most U.S. markets.
According to the National Association of Home Builders’ quarterly Home Opportunity Index, 72.5 percent of all new and existing homes sold between June-September 2010 were affordable to families earning the national median income. This ties the all-time high for home affordability, set in the first quarter of 2009.
The data also underscores that, when compared to historical norms, it’s a fantastic time to be a Fort Lee home buyer.
Prior to 2009, the Home Opportunity Index rarely topped 65. The index has remained above 70 ever since.
All real estate is local, though, and on a city-by-city basis, home affordability varied last quarter.
For example, 96% of homes sold in Kokomo, IN are affordable for families earning the area’s median income. This handily beat the average figure and led the nation. Looking at major cities, Indianapolis led the pack.
93% of homes in Indianapolis are affordable to families earning the area’s median income. This ranks #9 nationwide.
On the opposite end of the affordability scale is the New York-White Plains, NY-Wayne, NJ region. For the 10th consecutive quarter, the New York Metro region ranks last in U.S. home affordability. Just 23% of homes are affordable to families earning the local median income, although this is 3 points higher versus Q1 2010.
The rankings for all 225 metro areas are available online.
Regardless of where your hometown ranks relative to its neighbors, home affordability remains high as compared to historical values. That said, with mortgage rates rising and home sales expected to climb this winter, it’s unlikely that the Home Opportunity Index will improve.
Buying a home may never be this inexpensive again. If you planned to buy in mid-2011, consider moving up your time frame.
Are Home Values Declining In Your State?
Price must be compelling in Chesterfield VA
This winter will see a softening of prices in most parts of the country. If you are considering selling your home in the near future, you should talk with me today, 804-980-7906. That being said, I want to explain the magnitude of the challenge.
The FHFA just released their third quarter House Price Index. In the titled they claimed: U.S. House Prices Fall 1.6 Percent in the Third Quarter; Declines in Most Parts of the Country
What is the FHFA HPI?
Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) explains their pricing index this way:
The HPI is a broad measure of the movement of single-family house prices. It serves as a timely, accurate indicator of house price trends at various geographic levels. It also provides housing economists with an analytical tool that is useful for estimating changes in the rates of mortgage defaults, prepayments and housing affordability in specific geographic areas. The HPI is a measure designed to capture changes in the value of single-family houses in the U.S. as a whole, in various regions and in smaller areas. The HPI is published by the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) using data provided by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.
How widespread are price declines in the report?
The easiest way to explain this is to show the pricing map contained in the report:
Bottom Line
The majority of states have experienced weakening in house values. Many experts predict this will continue throughout the next several quarters. If you are considering selling in the near future, call me today so we can determine where prices are headed in your neighborhood.
House Prices: The Impact of Supply and Demand
For some time now, we have attempted to shed light on the fact that pricing in today’s real estate market will be determined by the concept of ‘supply and demand’. If supply continues to increase and demand softens (or even remains constant) prices will continue to fall. Even the National Association of Realtors (NAR) has acknowledged this to be true.
The supply of inventory in the real estate industry is defined by the current months’ supply of homes that is available for sale. There are no steadfast rules that will apply to every category of housing. However, here is a great guideline by which to go:
- 1-4 months’ supply creates a sellers’ market where there are not enough homes to satisfy buyer demand. Appreciation is guaranteed.
- 5-6 months’ supply creates a balanced market where historically home values appreciate at a rate a little greater than inflation.
- 7-8 months’ supply creates a buyers’ market where the number of homes for sale exceeds the demand. Depreciation follows.
Where do we stand today?
According to NAR’s most recent Existing Sales Report, there is currently a 10.5 months’ supply of homes for sale. We can see, based on the guideline above, we are in a buyers’ market and that prices will continue to soften. The other statistic we must watch is the number of months’ of shadow inventory which will be coming to market.
CoreLogic just released their November report (which covers August). They estimate shadow inventory:
… by calculating the number of properties that are seriously delinquent (90 days or more), in foreclosure and real estate owned (REO) by lenders and that are not currently listed on multiple listing services (MLSs). Shadow inventory is typically not included in the official metrics of unsold inventory.
The report showed that shadow inventory jumped more than 10% in the last year, pushing total unsold inventory to 2.1 million houses.
That represents another 8 months of supply.
The Wall Street Journal reported that some analysts have said CoreLogic estimates look rather low.
Laurie Goodman, senior managing director at Amherst Securities Group, has warned that as many as seven million homes could end up in banks hands unless more aggressive modification regimes are put in place.
Barclays estimates that another 3.76 million homes are either in the foreclosure process or are at least 90 days delinquent but not yet in foreclosure.
Bottom Line
Most industry experts are projecting just that – an additional fall in prices of between 5-20%. Mark Fleming, chief economist for CoreLogic commented:
“The weak demand for housing is significantly increasing the risk of further price declines in the housing market. This is being exacerbated by a significant and growing shadow inventory that is likely to persist for some time due to the highly extended time-to-liquidation that servicers are currently experiencing.”