Existing Home Sales
Home Supplies Tick Higher, Creating An Opening For Today’s Home Buyers
Sales of existing homes rose in April, buoyed by an expiring home buyer tax credit and exceptionally low mortgage rates.
As compared to March, April’s Existing Home Sales rose by 410,000 units nationwide — the second straight month of large gains. An “existing home” is a home resold by a prior owner (i.e. not new construction).
It’s a solid report for housing overall, with rising sales suggesting that the real estate market’s recovery is ongoing. However, the data presented a mixed message.
According to the National Association of Realtors®, although the number of homes sold ticked higher in April, so did the supply of existing homes for sale, too.
Sellers are now listing homes faster than buyers can buy them.
After adding another 0.3 months of supply in April, resale home supply is nearly two full months larger than at November 2009′s low-point. This put downward pressure on home prices.
Furthermore, because 49% of April’s buyers were first-time buyers and the tax credit has since ended, we can expect that sellers will continue to outweigh buyers in the months ahead.
It presents an interesting opportunity for June’s home buyers. Mortgage rates are still at their lowest levels of the year — despite expert predictions to the contrary — and homes remain affordable. Plus, in a lot of markets, home values have started to creep higher.
There’s good values and good rates but neither should last long. For the next few weeks, real estate may be in its 2010 sweet spot.
If you were thinking of moving in September of this year or later, consider moving up your timeframe.
Home Resales Boom Into The End Of The Tax Credit; Home Values Seen Rising.
Existing Home Sales rose in March, as expected. U.S. home buyers closed on 7 percent more homes as compared to February.
Furthermore, versus March 2009 — a month many people equate to the low point of the U.S. economy — sales volume was up 16 percent.
“Existing home sale” is the technical term for a home resale; a home previously inhabited by a person. It’s the opposite of a “new home sale” which is a sale of a newly-constructed home.
Existing Homes Data is tracked by the National Association of Realtors® and a closer look at the March data reveals some other interesting notes:
- Year-over-year sales are higher for the 9th straight month
- Real estate investors represented 19 percent of all homes purchased
- First-time home buyers account for 44 percent of all buyers
Also worth noting is that the supply of available homes is down on a broader basis. At the current rate of sales, the existing home inventory will be exhausted in 8 months.
Despite banks releasing foreclosures and REO into the Fort Lee market, that’s still one half-month less from February.
When supplies drops, home prices tend to rise. It suggests an underlying strength in housing that should support home prices through the next few months — especially as the home buyer tax credit finishes working its way through the system.
That said, real estate markets are local. You shouldn’t assume that what’s happening on the national level is also happening here at home. Be sure to check with your real estate agent about local market conditions before making a decision to buy or sell.
Existing Home Sales Flatten And Point To A Much Better Spring
As expected, Existing Home Sales fell in February, slipping 30,000 units versus January’s numbers. It’s the 4th straight month in which Existing Home Sales were lower, month-over-month.
An “existing” home is one that is previously owned and lived-in (i.e. not new construction).
Existing Home Sales peaked in November 2009, just as the First-Time Home Buyer Tax Credit was set to expire. Immediately thereafter, according to the National Association of Realtors®, monthly sales plunged 17 percent in December, then another 7 percent in January.
Comparatively, February’s dip is a modest 0.6 percent and is more in line with the pre-tax-credit Existing Home Sales trend. The real estate market is rediscovering its normal.
But “normal” may not last for long.
When the federal home buyer’s tax program was extended last year, the new rules stated that home buyers must be under contract for their new, respective homes on, or before, April 30, 2010 in order to claim up to $8,000 in federal money. That deadline is approaching and many markets — Chester included — are experiencing a surge in buyer traffic as April 30 nears.
The Existing Home Sales data doesn’t reflect this new demand, nor the number of new contracts written. It only accounts for home closings and, in February, closings were down.
For today’s buyers, the market looks favorable. The federal tax credit is in place, mortgage rates stubbornly stick near all-time lows, and home prices are staying in check.
Existing Home Sales should gain through March and April, pressuring home prices higher. And, by the time the press reports the gains, the best deals in the city may already be gone. Consider acting sooner rather than later.
Market Trends and Stats CVRMLS
Curious about what is happening in our market in Central VA (Richmond, Petersburg, Colonial Heights, Prince George, Dinwiddie, Powhatan, Amelia, Chesterfield, Henrico and so forth) Click here to view market data from March 2009-Feb 2010.
Homebuyer credit not jolting housing market
It sounded like a great idea three months ago: Hand homeowners a $6,500 tax credit to find a new place to live, giving a thrust of energy to the housing market’s recovery. Read more
Existing Home Sales Drop Again In January But Stay On The Trendline
The winter months have not been kind to home sales.
After plunging 17 percent in December, Existing Home Sales fell by an additional 7 percent in January, according to the National Association of Realtors®. An “existing home” is a home resold by a previous owner (i.e. not new construction).
In looking at the annualized, adjusted Existing Home Sales data, we find:
- Sales volume is at its lowest levels since June 2009
- Sales volume fell below its 12-month rolling average
- Home supplies are at a 5-month high
These are similar findings to the New Home Sales data issued by the government last week. That report put new home sales at a 40-year low and showed new homes supplies higher by an entire month.
But don’t think housing rebound has halted! Home sales are cyclical and there are outside forces on today’s market.
For one, the market is still feeling the after-effects of the original First-Time Home Buyer Tax Credit. Sales spiked in the months leading up to the original November 2009 expiration date. A pull-back is natural and expected.
Looking at the long-term trend, Existing Home Sales volume appears right in line.
Furthermore, weather across much of the U.S. was awful in January. That, too, can impede home sales as homes are neither shown nor negotiated when weather is majorly inclement.
Anecdotal evidence is showing sales activity higher through February and into March. And, although it’s unlikely we’ll see a spike through April like we did last November, buy-side demand for homes should remain strong. The good news of the sagging sales reports is that today’s buyers may find home prices are lower and sellers are more willing to negotiate.